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The Pipeline is a data-driven, recreational NFL pick'em and confidence pool assistant. It uses historical model validation (60% accuracy over 1,359 games, 2021β2025) to generate weekly predictions and help you track pool results. This app is for entertainment purposes only.
Weekly selections, confidence rankings, model ratings, and stats are for informational purposes only and do not guarantee future outcomes.
Walk-forward model validation: 60.0% accuracy across 1,359 historical NFL games (2021β2025). Provided for informational purposes only and does not guarantee future results.
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This app provides NFL pick information and confidence scoring for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not gambling advice, betting advice, or financial advice.
We do not guarantee the accuracy of picks, predictions, or outcomes. Historical model validation (60% accuracy over 1,359 games) is provided for informational purposes only and does not guarantee future results. All decisions are made at your own risk.
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| Week | W | L | Win% | Pts | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No weeks logged yet | ||||||
| Pool Pts | Matchup | Conf Score | Bar | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No games added yet | ||||
| Matchup | Model Selection | Model% | Home Line | Away Line | Implied Home% | Rating | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generate weekly selections first | |||||||
| Layer | Component | Range |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blend edge (base) | 1β10 |
| 2 | Model consensus | β2 to +2 |
| 3 | Referee crew | β2 to +2 |
| 4 | Injury tier | β2 to 0 |
| 5 | Luck factor | β1 to +1 |
| 6 | 2-minute flag | β1 to +1 |
| TOTAL β hard cap 14 | 1β14 | |
| Referee | Flags/Gm | Home ATS% | Adj | Profile |
|---|
| Team | 2024 Luck | Pyth W | Actual W | Gap | 2026 Flag |
|---|
| Season | Train Data | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 only | 272 | 158 | 58.1% |
| 2022 | 2020β2021 | 271 | 157 | 57.9% |
| 2023 | 2020β2022 | 272 | 155 | 57.0% |
| 2024 | 2020β2023 | 272 | 177 | 65.1% |
| 2025 | 2020β2024 | 272 | 168 | 61.8% |
| TOTAL | β | 1,359 | 815 | 60.0% |